Bank Directors Seminar, Coeur d'Alene, ID, September 15-17, 2019

What Keeps You Up at Night? Decoding the Business Cycle • Retrospective analysis of the BUSINESS CYCLE • Where is the US ECONOMY TODAY in the business cycle? • What DRIVES ECONOMIC GROWTH today? • What’s keeping CONSUMERS up at night? • What’s keeping BUSINESS LEADERS up at night? • What’s keeping GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS up at night?

• What’s keeping the FED up at night? • What’s keeping YOU up at night?

Economic Growth Model

Open Economy

People

Financial Markets

Ideas

Economic Growth

Rule of Law & Protection of People, Ideas and Things

Things

Siems and Ratner (2005)