Bank Directors Seminar, Coeur d'Alene, ID, September 15-17, 2019

What Keeps You Up at Night? Decoding the Business Cycle • Retrospective analysis of the BUSINESS CYCLE • Where is the US ECONOMY TODAY in the business cycle? • What DRIVES ECONOMIC GROWTH today? • What’s keeping CONSUMERS up at night? • What’s keeping BUSINESS LEADERS up at night? • What’s keeping GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS up at night?

• What’s keeping the FED up at night? • What’s keeping YOU up at night?

Economic Growth for Past Business Cycles

155

Growth After 1961

145

Growth After 1991

Growth After 1982

135

125

Current Expansion

Growth After 1975

Growth After 2001

Growth After 1970

115

Index, GDP Peak = 100

105

95

-3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45

Quarters from Peak

12