Large Bank Supervision Forum eBook

Internal Use Only

Consumer Loan Delinqueny Rates

12

Real Estate

10

8

6

Total Loans

4

Credit Card

Delinquency Rate (%)

2

Personal

0

1991Q1

1992Q1

1993Q1

1994Q1

1995Q1

1996Q1

1997Q1

1998Q1

1999Q1

2000Q1

2001Q1

2002Q1

2003Q1

2004Q1

2005Q1

2006Q1

2007Q1

2008Q1

2009Q1

2010Q1

2011Q1

2012Q1

2013Q1

2014Q1

2015Q1

2016Q1

2017Q1

2018Q1

2019Q1

2020Q1

2021Q1

2022Q1

2023Q1

Internal Use Only

Current Fed Tightening and the Most Severe Tightening in the Late 1970s 8/77-5/80

16

14

12

10

8

6

3/22-1/24+

4

2

Tightening Cycle (Percentage Points)

0

0

34

68

102

136

170

204

238

272

306

340

374

408

442

476

510

544

578

612

646

680

714

748

782

816

850

884

918

952

986

Increase in the Fed Funds Target Rate from Start of Fed

1020

1054

1088

1122

1156

1190

1224

1258

1292

Number of Days Following Start of Fed Tightening Cycle