Bank Directors Seminar, Coeur d'Alene, ID, September 15-17, 2019

Contributions to Percent Change in GDP

5

4

3

2

1

0

2016

2017

2018

2019Q1

2019Q2

-1

Percent Change at Annual Rate

-2

-3

Consumption Investment

Government

Net Exports

Real GDP

19

What Keeps You Up at Night? Decoding the Business Cycle • Retrospective analysis of the BUSINESS CYCLE • Where is the US ECONOMY TODAY in the business cycle? • What DRIVES ECONOMIC GROWTH today? • What’s keeping CONSUMERS up at night? • What’s keeping BUSINESS LEADERS up at night? • What’s keeping GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS up at night?

• What’s keeping the FED up at night? • What’s keeping YOU up at night?