Bank Directors Seminar, Coeur d'Alene, ID, September 15-17, 2019

WHAT KEEPS YOU UP AT NIGHT? DECODING THE BUSINESS CYCLE

Thomas F. Siems, PhD* CSBS Senior Economist and Director of Research Coeur d’Alene, ID September 16, 2019 * My thanks to Kyle Zhong, CSBS Analytics Product Director, for excellent research assistance.

What Keeps You Up at Night? Decoding the Business Cycle • Retrospective analysis of the BUSINESS CYCLE • Where is the US ECONOMY TODAY in the business cycle? • What DRIVES ECONOMIC GROWTH today? • What’s keeping CONSUMERS up at night? • What’s keeping BUSINESS LEADERS up at night? • What’s keeping GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS up at night?

• What’s keeping the FED up at night? • What’s keeping YOU up at night?