Large Bank Supervision Forum 2023
Fundamentals
Total 1 st Lien Leverage for New Issues Moved lower in Q4 but remain inside issuer valuations
Interest Coverage for New Issues Decreased to 3.9x during the quarter given higher borrowing costs
8.0x
8.0x
6.0x
6.0x
4.9 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.3
4.9
4.4 4.5 4.7
4.3
4.3 4.4
2.9 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.2 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.4 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9
3.8 4.0 3.9
3.5 3.0
4.0x
4.0x
2.0x
2.0x
0.0x
0.0x
EBITDA-Capex/Cash Interest
EBITDA/Cash Interest
FLD/EBITDA Total SL and Other Sub Debt/EBITDA
Trailing 12-Month Loan Default Rate Declined to 0.72%, remains close to historical low for asset class
Downgrade to Upgrade Ratios Down substantially since 2020; although 3M ticked up to 2.77x from 2.28x in Q3
12%
10x 15x 20x 25x 30x 35x 40x 45x
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0x 5x
0%
By Principal Amount
Average by Principal Amount
Rolling 3-Months
Rolling 12-Months
Source: LCD. Data as of December 31, 2022.
For financial professional or qualified institutional investor use only. Not for inspection by, distribution or quotation to the general public.
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Inflation and Fed Policy
Inflation Falling But Remains Elevated
Implied Fed Funds Target Rate and Fed Funds Futures
December 2022
CPI
10.0
1.5
6.0
5.5
8.0
1.0
5.0
6.0
0.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
YoY %
0.0 MoM %
2.0
3.5
-0.5
3.0
0.0
FOMC Members December Meeting FOMC DOT Median December Meeting Fed Funds Futures 12/20/22/22
2.5
-2.0
-1.0
Feb-19 Sep-19 Apr-20 Nov-20 Jun-21 Jan-22 Aug-22
2.0
2023
2024
2025
Longer Term
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
MoM
YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve and Voya Investment Management Left display as of 1/12/2023. On right display, FOMC Members and FOMC DOT Median as of 12/14/22 and Fed Funds Futures as of 12/20/22.
For financial professional or qualified institutional investor use only. Not for inspection by, distribution or quotation to the general public.
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