Large Bank Supervision Forum 2023

Internal Use Only

Lessons Learned. To Spot Recessions, Pay Attention to: • Fed policy decisions and external shocks that impact consumer pocketbooks (1991 recession) • Distracted consumers who are potentially sidelined from normal economic pursuits (2001 recession) • Concerns raised by informed consumers that NINJAs and free enterprise cannot coexist forever (2008-09 financial crisis) • Global forces and their impact on high-frequency consumer and business information (2020 pandemic/lockdown recession)

Internal Use Only

Lessons Learned. To Spot Recessions, Pay Attention to: • Fed policy decisions and external shocks that impact consumer pocketbooks (1991 recession) • Distracted consumers who are potentially sidelined from normal economic pursuits (2001 recession) • Concerns raised by informed consumers that NINJAs and free enterprise cannot coexist forever (2008-09 financial crisis) • Global forces and their impact on high-frequency consumer and business information (2020 pandemic/lockdown recession)