Large Bank Supervision Forum 2023

Inflation unmasked in Earnings Reports and Quarterly 10Qs Companies reveal what is really happening and their response to changing markets

Domino’s Pizza stock dives as delivery business remains under pressure (NYSE:DPZ) | Seeking Alpha

15

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MEASURES: U-MI, NFIB, & Small Business Record Household Debt affects Consumer ; Mortgage Rates affect Housing, Small Biz debt is Variable rate

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 2.1 points in December to 89.8, marking the 12th consecutive month below the 49 ‐ year average of 98. Small Bus , Restaurant & Retail failures pick up in 2023 https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/

Peak (post 2009): 101 (Feb 2020) Lows: 55.3 Nov 2008 (Why Up? Energy $/SPR) 50.0 June 2022 Current: 59.7 (Yr ‐ End 2022) Back to Housing Crisis

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) https://www.nahb.org/News%20 and%20Economics/Housing%20 Economics/Indices/Housing%20 Market%20Index Looking at the data, the downturn in housing is gaining momentum and could leave activity in worse condition than the Housing Bubble. The latest NAHB survey has home builder sentiment at the lowest levels since 2008 (not counting spring 2020) and the traffic of prospective buyers near the lowest levels on record. And then look at Builder Cancellation Rates!

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/

16