DataPalooza 2021

Thought Experiment

In 2013 dollars, what will the price of one Bitcoin be in 5 years?

I have no idea Which of these answers is more useful (and why)?

$52,500

Range of Likely Outcomes

Over ‐ confident

Under ‐ confident

Activity: Are you over-confident or under-confident?

INSTRUCTIONS (PART 1) 1. Get out a piece of paper or launch notepad. 2. You will answer 10 trivia questions that have a numeric answer. 3. You should have some idea but probably won’t know the exact answer. 4. For each question, answer a range will contain the correct answer 9 times out of 10. But not 10 times out of 10. • Bottom of range • Top of range

(Don’t look up the answers : ‐ )