BAS Presentations - March 2023

Section I: Executive Summary

The banking environment improved in 2021 as the U.S. economy recovered from a severe recession in 2020. The U.S. economy expanded in 2021, surpassing the pre-pandemic output peak in second quarter. However, the recovery was uneven across industries and regions. Labor markets improved, but labor-force participation rates remained weak and signs of labor shortages emerged in key industries. Global supply chain disruptions contributed to substantially higher inflation, pressuring consumer budgets and business costs. Economic growth slowed during the second half of the year, in part due to the expiration of government programs that supported consumers and businesses. Most baseline forecasts call for a modest deceleration in U.S. economic growth in 2022 from the effects of higher inflation and increased geopolitical uncertainty following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Financial market conditions were generally supportive of the economy and banking industry in 2021. Corporate credit conditions remained favorable and corporate debt issuance remained strong amid low interest rates. Issuance of high-yield bonds and leveraged loans reached record highs. Equity markets rose and Treasury yields edged higher on economic andmonetary policy developments. But financial market conditions deteriorated in early 2022 when tensions between Russia and Ukraine intensified. Banking sector profitability increased in 2021 as expenses declined and noninterest income rose. Banks reported substantially higher net income in 2021 primarily due to lower credit loss provisions. Net interest income for the industry improved in the second half of 2021 but remained below the 2020 level. Asset growth was concentrated in cash, interest-bearing balances, and securities, while loan growth remained weak. Stronger economic conditions helped support the improvement in asset quality during the year. Among community banks, net income rose and surpassed the pre-pandemic level in 2021, even as net interest income declined. Credit Risks: Credit conditions improved in 2021, helped by various government support programs for businesses and consumers, improving economic conditions, and supportive financial market conditions. o Agriculture: The agricultural sector had a strong year in 2021. The sector benefited from higher commodity prices, farm incomes, and farmland values that helped support agricultural loans held by the banking industry, particularly farm banks. Farm banks are defined as community banks with substantial exposure to the agricultural sector. Profitability of farm banks remained favorable despite weak loan demand andmargin compression. Asset quality among farm banks improved in 2021, as loan repayments increased and loan extensions declined. Despite the current strength, rising production costs and supply chain problems that affect the agriculture sector may pose challenges to the banking sector in 2022. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has created uncertainty about the prospects for exports of key agricultural commodities. o Commercial Real Estate: The commercial real estate (CRE) sector was generally resilient to pandemic developments during the year, andmost property types rebounded from the initial setback in 2020. Industrial and multifamily properties performed relatively well, while office Key Risks to Banks


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