2024 Supervisors Symposium

Internal Use Only

Moody's Analytics' Recession Probability Indicator Based on Economic Data

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Oct 2024 11.8%

Probability of a Recession in the Next 12 Months (%)

Jul-05

Jul-16

Jan-00

Jan-11

Jan-22

Jun-06

Jun-17

Oct-02

Oct-13

Oct-24

Apr-08

Feb-10

Apr-19

Feb-21

Sep-03

Sep-14

Dec-00

Dec-11

Dec-22

Aug-04

Aug-15

Nov-01

Nov-12

Nov-23

Mar-09

Mar-20

May-07

May-18

17

Internal Use Only

Yield Curve Signals Economic Recession

4

2

0

Yield Curve Inverted for 23 Consecutive Months

-2

-4

-6

Interst rate spread, 10-year Tbond minus Fed Funds

-8

Jan-59

Jan-61

Jan-63

Jan-65

Jan-67

Jan-69

Jan-71

Jan-73

Jan-75

Jan-77

Jan-79

Jan-81

Jan-83

Jan-85

Jan-87

Jan-89

Jan-91

Jan-93

Jan-95

Jan-97

Jan-99

Jan-01

Jan-03

Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-19

Jan-21

Jan-23

18