2024 Supervisors Symposium

Internal Use Only

Recessions Often Follow Fed Rate Cuts

10 12 14 16 18 20

…But Not Always!

0 2 4 6 8

Fed Funds Rate (%)

Jul-18

Jul-09

Jul-00

Jul-91

Jul-82

Jul-73

Jul-64

Jan-23

Jan-14

Jan-05

Jan-96

Jan-87

Jan-78

Jan-69

Jan-60

Oct-20

Oct-11

Oct-02

Oct-93

Oct-84

Oct-75

Oct-66

Apr-16

Apr-07

Apr-98

Apr-89

Apr-80

Apr-71

Apr-62

11

Internal Use Only

What Are the Downside Economic Risks?

12