2024 Supervisors Symposium

Internal Use Only

Inflation Expectations > Price Stability Target

7

6

5

4

3

Inflation Expectations Are Too High

Target = 2%

2

1

0

-1

Jul-83

Jul-86

Jul-89

Jul-92

Jul-95

Jul-98

Jul-01

Jul-04

Jul-07

Jul-10

Jul-13

Jul-16

Jul-19

Jul-22

Jan-82

Jan-85

Jan-88

Jan-91

Jan-94

Jan-97

Jan-00

Jan-03

Jan-06

Jan-09

Jan-12

Jan-15

Jan-18

Jan-21

Jan-24

5

Internal Use Only

Monthly Job Growth Has Slowed

900

800

700

600

500

3-month moving average

400

300

Job Growth Enough to

(Thousands of Workers, SA)

200

Maintain ~4.2% Unemployment Rate

100

Net Monthly Payroll Employment Growth, Total Nonfarm

0

6