2024 Supervisors Symposium

Internal Use Only

US public debt stock allowed to grow too large

Treasury auctions having more difficulty.

Insufficient real money buyers with balance sheet. Treasury market is overwhelmed with supply. Concerns also about economic policy credibility.

Commercial Banking Program (CBP) Adam C. Sinn ‘00 Department of Finance

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Internal Use Only Expect Game of Thrones on new Administration’s economic policy in year 1 • Treasury Sec nominee Bessent has strong background and recognizes the urgency of some fiscal tightening to allow the Fed to cut interest rates. • However, multiple voices in the incoming Administration on economic policy with disparate ideas. Some other advisors may need to make mistakes for his voice to gain more sway – so expect some policy mistakes next year.

• On fiscal, extension of 2017 tax cuts likely to get funded with China tariffs. May also see the executive branch impound spending.

• My impression – economic team more of financial markets than financial institutions focused. Risk of merely acceding to large bank lobby.

Commercial Banking Program (CBP) Adam C. Sinn ‘00 Department of Finance

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