Legal Seminar, Chicago, IL

AGENCY GROSS AND NET ISSUANCE BYMONTH GENCY ISSUANCE AGENCY GROSS ISSUANCE & FED PURCHASES

Monthly Gross Issuance While FHA, VA and GSE lending have dominated the mortgage market since the crisis, there has been a change in the mix. The Ginnie Mae share of new issuances has risen from a precrisis level of 10-12 percent to 33.0 percent in May 2019. This share increase reflected both increases in the purchase share and in the refi share. More precisely, on the refi side there was a proportionately sharper curtailment in the GSE refis than in Ginnie Mae refis.

Freddie Mac Fannie Mae Ginnie Mae

($ billions)

250

200

150

100

50

0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Sources : eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of NewYork, and Urban Institute.

May 2019

Fed Absorption of Agency Gross Issuance

The Fed is winding down its MBS portfolio; newMBS purchases are minimal. During the period October 2014 to September 2017, the Fed ended its purchase program, but was reinvesting funds frommortgages and agency debt into the mortgage market, absorbing 20-30 percent of agency gross issuance. The portfoliowind down started in October 2017, with the Fed allowing a pre-established amount of MBS to run off each month. FromOctober 2017 to September 2018, the Fed was still reinvesting, but by less than the prepayments and repayments. In October, 2018, the amount of MBS permitted to run off each month (MBS taper) hit the $20 billion cap. Since then the amount of Fed purchases has been tiny; inMay 2019 Fed purchases totaled $270 million, corresponding to Fed absorption of gross issuance of 0.23 percent.

Gross issuance

Total Fed purchases

250 ($ billions)

200

150

100

50

0

May 2019

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of NewYork and Urban Institute.

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