Legal Seminar, Chicago, IL

HOME PRICE INDICES STATE OF THE MARKET National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

Year-over-year home price appreciation continued to slow in April 2019, as measured by both Black Knight’s repeat sales index and Zillow’s hedonic index. We will be monitoring home prices carefully as the Spring home buying season is upon us. We would expect the lower end of the market to fair better than the upper end, as low-end inventory is very tight.

Year-over-year growth

15%

Black Knight HPI

10%

6.13

5%

3.40

ZillowHVI

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

Sources: Black Knight, Zillow, and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2019.

Changes in Black Knight HPI for Top MSAs After rising 51.5 percent from the trough, national house prices are now 12.8 percent higher than pre-crisis peak levels. At the MSA level, ten of the top 15 MSAs have exceeded their pre-crisis peak HPI: New York, NY; Los Angeles, CA; Atlanta, GA; Houston, TX; Dallas, TX; Minneapolis, MN; Seattle, WA; Denver, CO, San Diego, CA, and Anaheim, CA. TwoMSAs particularly hard hit by the boom and bust—Chicago, IL and Riverside, CA—are 10.2 and 10.4 percent, respectively, below peak values.

HPI changes (%)

MSA

% above peak

Peak to trough

Trough to current

2000 to peak

United States

75.7

-25.6 -22.4 -38.1 -38.4 -35.6 -28.4

51.5 42.0 82.2 45.7 77.0 35.4 46.2 90.8 85.5 64.9 57.3 90.5 21.5 74.4 63.1

12.8 10.2 12.7 -10.2 13.9 -3.0 36.5 -6.7 -10.4 53.1

New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL

127.8 180.0

67.1 32.5

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

149.2

Houston-TheWoodlands-Sugar Land, TX

29.3

-6.6

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

113.2 175.7

-51.1 -51.7

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX

26.4 69.3 90.4 34.0

-7.2

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

-30.3 -33.0 -12.1 -24.2 -37.6 -35.3

9.6

Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

105.4

37.6 67.4 -7.9

123.2 148.4 163.3

San Diego-Carlsbad, CA

8.9 5.6

Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA

Sources : Black Knight HPI and Urban Institute. Data as of April 2019. Note: This table includes the largest 15Metropolitan areas by mortgage count.

22